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Tag: Plotly

How the Best Teams are Not Necessarily the Ones Who Kick the Most Goals Looking at the importance and repeatability of shot creation

Posted in Team Metrics

Last article, I looked at how important Goal-Kicking Accuracy was to the chances of winning a match of AFL footy. It turned out that it was very important, teams that kick straighter very often end up winning. Unfortunately, in investigating this I also found out that repeating a straight kicking performance week-to-week with any sort of consistency doesn’t really happen. Goal-Kicking Accuracy is pretty much a crapshoot. Sometimes you’re on, sometimes you’re off, with no real rhyme or reason.

This naturally leads us to our next question. If kicking straight is not repeatable, what skills are? Why do some teams win much more often than others? What areas of the game do they excel in that are repeatable week after week?

Seeing as kicking more goals than your opponent is really the name of the game, and we now know accuracy is so variable, let’s start in the simplest place possible by looking at the number of scoring chances a side creates.¬†While we’re at it, let’s also see how well they limit their opponent’s scoring chances. Is this where true, repeatable team talent lies?

Are Good Teams Straighter-Shooters? Exploring the importance and consistency of Goal-Kicking Accuracy.

Posted in Team Metrics

Goal-Kicking has long been touted as the single most important skill in Aussie Rules footy. Obviously, if you can’t kick a goal, you’re never going to win a game. This is why it is surprising that while goal-kicking accuracy has improved over the last 40 years, it has in no way matched the corresponding improvements in other important match skills as footy has become the professional, scientific game it is today.

While this is true¬†(and certainly something for kicking coaches to think about), I’m less interested in the long-term historical shift in Goal-Kicking Accuracy (GKA) and much more interested in what we can learn about a modern day team in the AFL from how they kick in front of the sticks. Do better teams have a consistently higher GKA? Can we use the past GKA of teams to tip upcoming matches? Can it help us predict a premier?