Here are the new FFSS team ratings after the completion of Round 5. The competition has very much split itself off into two sections. The…
Ratings After Round 5
Posted in Ratings
Statistical Analysis of What's What in the AFL.
Posted in Ratings
Here are the new FFSS team ratings after the completion of Round 5. The competition has very much split itself off into two sections. The…
No long discussion about the changes in ratings this week. Life (and death) has got in the way. Just quickly, FFSS only tipped 6 out…
The Figuring Footy Scoring Shots predictor (FFSS) correctly called 7 out of 9 games this week, getting caught out only by St Kilda beating Collingwood…
If Round 1 was a display of lucking tipping, then Round 2 came around to show us all that you just can’t count on lady…
My new computer predictor algorithm FFSS (Figuring Footy Scoring Shots) fared pretty admirably in her first week of tipping, nailing 8 out of 9 possible results. Only a bit of Dangerfield-inspired magic late on Monday afternoon prevented a perfect start to the season.
Anybody who has read this blog before will know that before the upcoming round I publish expected win probabilities for each match to be played. These probabilities are calculated by looking at the FFSS ratings of both teams and accounting for the venue. For example, I gave Sydney a 75% chance of beating Collingwood at home. They of course went on to thump them by 80 points. So then, if Sydney were so good, why didn’t the model rate them even higher and know ahead of time that they would dispatch Collingwood with ease?