Last week I introduced a model which can be used to calculate the true quality of any scoring shot taken during a match. This basically quantifies…
Tag: Goal-Kicking Accuracy
A Model to Predict and Rate Shots by Quality Formalising and Parametrising Shot Probability
Posted in ExpScore, Game Analysis, Scoring Map, and Trends and Historic Analysis
A little over a month ago I published some empirical Goal Kicking Accuracy maps that looked at the likelihood of kicking a goal from each…
The Goal-Kicking Accuracy Fallacy Every Club in the AFL Kicks at Roughly the Same Level
Posted in ExpScore, and Team Metrics
Last week I posted an article visualising the competition average Goal-Kicking Accuracy (GKA) for shots from every position on the ground. If you haven’t read that…
Goal Kicking Accuracy Maps – ExpScore What's a Shot Worth?
Posted in ExpScore, Game Analysis, and Scoring Map
What this early article refers to as “ExpScore” is now usually referred to as”xScore”. A key component of my FFSS ratings, which are used to…
I have been playing around with different types of data visualisation lately, particularly visualising scoring shots. I’m hoping to clearly see the quality of chances each team created to get a better idea of the styles they are playing and also their finishing ability. I previously looked at Goal-Kicking Accuracy in a very general sense and found that every team converts at more-or-less the same percentage (Goals/Behinds) in the long run. However, in that post I didn’t consider the quality of chances created, which is something I plan to spend much more time on in the future.
Are Good Teams Straighter-Shooters? Exploring the importance and consistency of Goal-Kicking Accuracy.
Posted in Team Metrics
Goal-Kicking has long been touted as the single most important skill in Aussie Rules footy. Obviously, if you can’t kick a goal, you’re never going to win a game. This is why it is surprising that while goal-kicking accuracy has improved over the last 40 years, it has in no way matched the corresponding improvements in other important match skills as footy has become the professional, scientific game it is today.
While this is true (and certainly something for kicking coaches to think about), I’m less interested in the long-term historical shift in Goal-Kicking Accuracy (GKA) and much more interested in what we can learn about a modern day team in the AFL from how they kick in front of the sticks. Do better teams have a consistently higher GKA? Can we use the past GKA of teams to tip upcoming matches? Can it help us predict a premier?