The Figuring Footy Scoring Shots predictor (FFSS) correctly called 7 out of 9 games this week, getting caught out only by St Kilda beating Collingwood (which FFSS did see value in the betting market in) and Adelaide dismantling Richmond (which I wrote about being a distinct possibility last week).
All in all, a fairly solid week, more or less meeting our pre-round tipping expectations given the expected probabilities of each favourite winning their match.
Following the recommended value bets from last week would have again seen you shave off a very small amount from your bankroll, losing out 0.1 Units. Any dreams of a positive return for this week went down with Aaron Sandilands when the big man broke a rib and punctured his lung. Freo were unable to cope without their star ruckman and unfortunately surrendered the slender lead they had built.
Despite the loss, if you had been following FFSS value bets since Round 1 you would still be up over 12.5 Units.
Updated Ratings
A few observations about the FFSS Ratings after Round 3:
- Fremantle are now considered a roughly average team. Last year’s minor premiers have suffered a real fall from grace losing their first 3 games of the season. However, like I have written about before, the signs were there last year, and FFSS picked up on them early.
- Adelaide sneak into the top 4. On the back of a convincing displays against Port in the Showdown last week and Richmond at Etihad this week, Adelaide have received a significant ratings reassessment and are now considered by FFSS to be about the fourth best team in the comp. One thing that may stand out to some people, is that they are now rated above North, a team who is unbeaten and in fact beat the Crows in week 1. The reason for this is simple, North only just won that Round 1 clash by a couple of kicks (after Adelaide created many quality chances), and were the beneficiaries of some healthy Home Ground Advantage against the travelling interstate team. If the two clubs were to play each other again right now, our tip would be for whoever the home team was. Aside from that the Round 1 result, Adelaide’s climb relative to North is based on the higher quality of opposition they have beaten.
- Gold Coast are coming. The Suns have started their season 3-0 and look like they might pose a real challenge. Their FFSS rating has been climbing steadily all year, from their very modest starting point of 1360. Once again, the reason rating is not any higher is because of the relatively low quality of opposition they have played, two out of three wins coming against Essendon and Carlton. They have Brisbane this week so we may not be able to get a good sense of their true rating for another few weeks.
